The Long-Run Effects of a Public Policy on Alcohol Tastes and Mortality

We study the long-run effects of Russia’s anti-alcohol campaign, which dramatically altered relative supply hard and light alcohol in late 1980s. find that this policy shifted young men’s preferences from to decades later, we estimate age at consumers form their tastes. show large beer market expansion 1990s had similar on consumers’ tastes, while older tastes remained largely unchanged. then link these changes consumption patterns male mortality. The shift reduced incidences binge drinking substantially, leading fewer alcohol-related deaths. conclude resulting cohort differences current shares explain a significant part recent decrease Simulations suggest mortality will continue by another 23 percent over next 20 years due persistent consumer Program impact evaluations focus only contemporaneous can therefore severely underestimate total effect such public policies change for goods. (JEL D12, H25, H31, I12, I18, L66, P36)